No Western companies have applied to return to the Russian market, a top official says

• No Western companies have applied to return to Russia, a top Russian official said.
• He signaled tough negotiations for returning Western firms.
• Trump’s Moscow talks have spurred speculation about a corporate return to Russia.

No Western companies have applied to return to Russia, a top Russian official said on Thursday — a contrast against recent active speculation about a corporate return to the market.

“No one has officially applied yet, only informally testing the waters so to say,” said Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, according to TASS state news agency.

The Trump administration has been seeking a cease-fire deal with Moscow, spurring discussions about a return of Western businesses to Russia.

Western brands “will be waiting for their management to give a signal,” Medvedev said.

Companies that left Russia include fast-food giant McDonald’s and coffee chain Starbucks.

Medvedev indicated it wouldn’t be easy for the foreign companies — who he said left on their own accord — to return to Russia, as the country’s businesses have filled their shoes.

“Our companies have taken many niches by now, well done to them. New expertise, new production sites, and even whole sectors appearing amid sanctions have emerged. They fairly earned their place in the sun, and they are ours, Russian,” Medvedev said on Thursday.

Medvedev’s comments echo those made by Anton Alikhanov, the Russian industry and trade minister, who said last month that Russia was “not waiting for anyone with open arms” and that there would be “a price to pay for past decisions.”

On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin doubled down on his officials’ stance, per TASS.

“To prevent cases when the owners sold their business in Russia at a bargain price essentially left it to its fate, and now they want to buy the asset back for the same peanuts. It shouldn’t be like that, that’s not the way it works,” Putin said. “The market situation has changed, the companies have become stronger, increased their capitalization and are valued differently.”

Caution ahead

More than three years into the war in Ukraine, 483 foreign companies have left the Russian market completely, according to the Leave Russia database from the Kyiv School of Economics.

The exit of foreign businesses created winners at home in Russia, some of whom picked up assets at fire sale prices. They would likely need to be compensated to give up their businesses.

“Freely allowing foreign companies back in is going to diminish their profit streams and make life a lot more competitive, so if that is going to happen, Russia wants some kind of compensation for liberalizing its market,” said David Szakonyi, a specialist in Russia’s political economy at George Washington University, told Business Insider last month.

Avtovaz, the former Russian partner of Renault, said last month that the French carmaker would need to pay about $1.3 billion if it wishes to return after the war.

Despite the lure of the large Russian market, analysts have recently said that businesses are likely to be cautious about a return to the country, even if sanctions are lifted.

Russia’s wartime economy is facing multiple issues, including high inflation, currency volatility, and sky-high interest rates. Putin’s ironclad reign also presents concerns about the rule of law and safety.

Investors are likely to remain cautious after corporate nationalization and asset seizures in the past few years that redistributed international corporate wealth to the Russian state and oligarchs.