Tesla Q3 earnings: Investors looking for updates on robotaxis and AI, with stock up 10% in 2025

The Tesla humanoid robot Optimus Gen-2 and new electric vehicles on display in a Tesla store in Shanghai, China.

CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Earnings day is here for Tesla, and the stakes are high.

After a roller coaster ride for the stock in 2025, shares are now up 95% in six months, but even with such a massive gain, that only amounts to a rise of about 10% year-to-date.

Now, investors will get a sense of whether the rally that’s taken hold in the latter half of the year can continue. They’ll be laser-focused on updates on Tesla’s robotaxi rollout, which many on Wall Street see as the justification for the EV maker’s premium valuation.

There will also be questions about the outlook for vehicle sales after Tesla reported deliveries earlier this month that crushed estimates. However, with the federal EV tax credit now off the table, some have wondered if sales will wane in the coming quarters.

Tesla will publish its results shortly after the 4 p.m. ET closing bell, with the analyst call scheduled for 5:30.

Tesla’s new “more affordable” models will likely be a hot topic

Earlier this month, Tesla revealed its long-awaited lower-cost Model Y and also surprised the world by announcing a more affordable version of its Model 3. Both are referred to as the “standard” version of the models and drop a number of features offered in the higher-end models, including the radio and Autosteer.

The Standard version of Tesla’s most popular Model Y will cost $39,990, and the Model 3 Standard costs $36,990.

While customers and investors eagerly awaited the more affordable model’s release, Wall Street analysts largely expressed disappointment at the vehicles’ price points.

“We are relatively disappointed with this launch as the price point is only $5k lower than prior Model 3’s and Y’s,” Tesla bull Dan Ives wrote in a note to investors after the announcement.

Analysts and investors will be looking for an update on Semi and Cybercab production

A view of Tesla Semi-Truck — A view of a Tesla Semi-Truck at Electrify Expo San Francisco on August 24, 2024.

Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

Tesla said in its second-quarter earnings release that the Semi and Cybercab production were both expected to reach volume production in 2026. With just a few months left of 2025, investors will want to know if the EV giant is still headed toward that timeline.

Tesla recalls over 12,900 vehicles

Tesla recalled nearly 13,000 vehicles built this year, due to a defect that regulators said can cause a sudden loss of battery power and increase the risk of a crash. The issue involves 2025 Model 3s and 2026 Model Ys, according to a National Highway Traffic Safety Administration filing on Tuesday.

While many past Tesla recalls were remedied through over-the-air software updates, impacted owners this time around will have to take their vehicle in to replace the part in question, the battery part contactor. The part replacement will be free of charge.

Tesla’s Field Reliability team began investigating identified incidents in August, and as of October 7, it had identified 36 warranty claims and 26 field reports related to the condition, the recall report said. There were no collisions, injuries, or deaths related to the issue.

Cantor says focus will be on near-term catalysts for the stock

A Tesla store in Shanghai on October 19, 2025

CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Andres Sheppard of Cantor Fitzgerald wrote this week that the focus will be on the biggest catalysts for the stock price. Specifically, he cited “several upcoming key material potential near-term catalysts, including: continued rollout of Robotaxi in Texas and California, ramp up of the Model 3/Y standard (lower-cost vehicle), FSD adoption in China and Europe, launch of the cybercab in 2026, and an update on the timeline for its humanoid Optimus Bot.”

Cantor has a $355 price target for the stock, implying downside of about 20% from current levels.

Goldman says watch for 5 big items from tonight’s earnings call

Analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote earlier this month that they’re eyeing a handful of key updates from the carmaker.

The outlook for vehicle deliveries
Automotive profit margins
Progress on robotaxis and full self-driving
Growth in its energy business
Fresh updates on the Optimus robot

The bank has a price target of $425 a share and a “Neutral” rating on the stock. The analysts said they expect Tesla to deliver 475,000 vehicles this quarter, down slightly from nearly 500,000 delivered in Q3

RBC sets a $500 price target for Tesla stock on “sum-of-the-parts” methodology

Tesla CEO Elon Musk will be providing updates for the company’s second-quarter earnings.

Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Analysts at RBC have a price target of $500 for Tesla stock, representing 12% upside from Wednesday’s price. Their thesis hinges on a “sum-of-the-parts” methodology that values the company on revenues related to all of its business units, with its auto unit ranked lower than things like AI and robots.

The bank’s Tom Narayan upped his Tesla price target after speaking with the company’s management team about production of its humanoid robot, Optimus, which they say has a total addressable market worth $9 trillion.

Morningstar wants updates on Robotaxis and cheaper car models

Morningstar’s Dave Sekera thinks the big updates from the call will be around robotaxis, but news on the company’s cheaper Model 3 and Model Y cars should also be on investors’ radar. The company unveiled the lower-priced versions of its most popular cars earlier in October, and Wall Street is eager to hear if the move has stimulated more demand for Teslas.

Morningstar is relatively bearish on the stock.

“We think generally the market is overestimating the amount and speed of earnings growth here. We think that to some degree, the market is really pricing in Tesla more as an AI stock rather than as an operating company,” Sekera said.

Wedbush says listen for the AI updates

Consumers look at vehicles in a Tesla store — People in a Tesla store in Shanghai on October 19, 2025.

credit should read CFOTO/Future Publishing via Getty Images

The outlook for car sales is important, but AI is the bigger update that investors should be looking for from this report, Wedbush Securities’ Dan Ives said this week.

“We continue to strongly believe the most important chapter in Tesla’s growth story is now beginning with the AI era now here,” Ives said. “It starts with autonomous then robotics as we believe the autonomous valuation is worth $1 trillion alone to the Tesla story over the next few years that will start to get unlocked over the coming months.”

Wedbush has a $600 price target for Tesla stock, representing 37% upside from Wednesday’s price.

Wall Street expects Tesla to report revenue of $26.3 billion, EPS of $.042

THIRD QUARTER

Adjusted EPS estimate 54c (Bloomberg Consensus)
EPS estimate 42c
Revenue estimate $26.36 billion
Gross margin estimate 17.2%
Operating income estimate $1.65 billion
Free cash flow estimate $1.25 billion
Capital expenditure estimate $2.84 billion
YEAR
Production estimate 1.72 million
Deliveries estimate 1.63 million
Capital expenditure estimate $10 billion

Source: Bloomberg

Read the original article on Business Insider

Content Accuracy: Keewee.News provides news, lifestyle, and cultural content for informational purposes only. Some content is generated or assisted by AI and may contain inaccuracies, errors, or omissions. Readers are responsible for verifying the information. Third-Party Content: We aggregate articles, images, and videos from external sources. All rights to third-party content remain with their respective owners. Keewee.News does not claim ownership or responsibility for third-party materials. Affiliate Advertising: Some content may include affiliate links or sponsored placements. We may earn commissions from purchases made through these links, but we do not guarantee product claims. Age Restrictions: Our content is intended for viewers 21 years and older where applicable. Viewer discretion is advised. Limitation of Liability: By using Keewee.News, you agree that we are not liable for any losses, damages, or claims arising from the content, including AI-generated or third-party material. DMCA & Copyright: If you believe your copyrighted work has been used without permission, contact us at dcma@keewee.news. No Mass Arbitration: Users agree that any disputes will not involve mass or class arbitration; all claims must be individual.